I wrote the first part of my prospecting guide here and as I mentioned, it’s all about the bubbles. There are generally two very large bubbles when it comes to Bowman Chrome Prospect cards. The first bubble occurs when the player is recognized as a top prospect and the second one occurs when that player makes his major league debut or shortly thereafter. The second bubble was prolonged or you can even speculate that a third bubble developed last year with Stephen Strasburg’s quick ascent through the minors and domination in the big leagues, but that’s another article.
To put this in simple terms, a $5 card will suddenly become a $25 before reverting back to it’s original price of $5. In the prospect market, money always goes towards inflating the bubble and it’s never price that pops the bubble, it’s time. Prospectors have absolutely no sense of relativity, they only have a sense of greed.
In a rational world, we’d use the information that we have to formulate the correct price to buy at and the correct price to sell at. Since we obviously do not know what Bryce Harper will do in the future, it makes sense to find a reasonable comparison. Our price ceiling should be a ten-year old Albert Pujols Bowman Chrome that normally sells between $3000 and $4000. Albert Pujols is a once in a generation talent and will almost certainly go down as the greatest baseball player of all time. Another set of useful comparisons are Justin Upton‘s and Alex Gordon
‘s 2006 Bowman Chrome autographs: Upton and Gordon were both can’t-miss prospects and have both faired somewhere between average and good.
Yet, there’s no math, there’s no expected value, there’s only one assumption: Bryce Harper will be better than Albert Pujols. This logic is even more prevalent when you deal with middle tier prospects that are always over-valued. They’re not just slightly over-valued either, they’re grossly overvalued. This is why someone that buys in during the original prospect hype at insane prices can flip that card for a profit and frustrate anyone that competently analyzes baseball.
There is nothing more frustrating than watching someone who doesn’t have a clue turn a profit because there are even less knowledgeable people out there.
Once you understand how the baseball card market works, you’ll be able to make a good chunk of change playing it. If, like myself, you just prefer to engage in ventures that stroke your ego you can do that too. Whether it’s prospecting or throwing a couple bucks down on Bodog Sportsbook, the money isn’t the real high, being right is.
In the prospect market, you have to understand that there’s far more product than there is money. The money will always flow towards the hot, money-making cards and away from the solid, long-term value.
You can either take the Warren Buffet approach of buying up value or you can prey on the greed of others and simply sell before the bubble pops. A lot of people opt for riding the bubble because it’s a lot more enjoyable to be sitting on all sorts of Mike Trout and Jesus Montero Chrome Autographs than it is to sit on a boring prospect that’s yet to break out. But, if you’re starting with very little money or you prefer a safe investment, it’s the boring prospects you’re after.
